Monday, August 31, 2015

2016 Republican Party Primary: Why the “dark side” continues to win and win big!

Keywords or Terms: Real Estate Mongol Donald Trump; Neurosurgeon Ben Carson; August Polls; Quinnipiac University Polls; Dark Side; GOP Base; Racists; Early Front-Runner; Gov. Jeb Bush; Sen. Lindsey Graham; Sen. Marco Rubio; Political Action Committee; Narcissistic; Nationalistic; Racists; 14th Amendment; Transformation Campaigning; Award Winning Journalist Jorge Ramos; UNIVISION; Politics of Demagoguery; and, Principles and Ethos of Civil Campaign.

Going by recent, and the totality of the month of August polls, one thing is absolutely clear, Donald Trump is the front runner for the Republican Party; while Hillary Clinton, with a few stumbling steps on the way, is probably the front-runner for the Democratic Party. While Senator Bernie Sanders is gradually catching up to Secretary Clinton in the Democratic Party primary, the former front runner for the Republican Party, Jeb Bush, is being drown out, like many other Republican aspirants, by the bold message on anti-immigration, which some observers consider as racist in nature, which is being peddled by Aspirant Donald Trump. Republican Aspirant Lindsey Graham exasperatedly indicated that Donald Trump’s Candidacy represents the “dark side” of the GOP base; a connotation which many in this group will readily scorn at and gladly inform Senator Graham as being out of touch with the GOP base. 

Love it or hate it, the Republican base is made up of anti-immigration, anti-big government, anti-women, anti-minority and pro-fiscal responsibility groups, some of whom may be seen as narcissistic, nationalistic, sexist, racist and uncompromising, if you ask others. As long as Donald Trump continues to cater to this type of campaign messaging, his polls number will continue to grow and his candidacy receive the blessing, of even the most unreceptive Republicans in current campaign exercise. Above all, each Republican aspirant will need to assess his or her campaign messages to the need of close to thirty percentage of Republican voters, the way Donald Trump’s campaign messaging has done, going by month of August Polls.

Once the laggards among the eighteen or so Republican aspirants are able to understand why Donald Trump’s message is resonating well with the Republican base, probably then, will they be able to skew their messaging to those voters that can make or break their candidacy in this early run for the party’s flag bearer position. Now, Senator Marco Rubio had made advances on the issue of immigration, and has been considered probably one Senator that has a forward or progressive articulation of the national issue of immigration; however, he has not been able to reach the tenth in percentage among the GOP base. How has Donald Trump done it, while Marco Rubio, who once worked on a bi-partisan group in US Congress who had sort answers to the eleven million undocumented immigrants in America, is not able? What’s wrong with Marco Rubio’s or any other Republican aspirant campaign messaging that has made it difficult for them to reach a higher note on the national polls?

“Super” political action committees have hauled millions for Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign, just as they have done for Jeb Bush’s. Miami Herald reported at various times in the month of August, that Marco Rubio has been beneficiary of close to ten million dollars from Norma Braman, an auto magnate and civic activist, who considers his candidacy as one of the future. Across town, Mike Fernandez raised a whopping One hundred and three million dollars for Jeb Bush’s Presidential bid. With each candidate’s Super Political Action Committees raising more money donations than the candidates themselves, you wonder why the huge hauls have not translated into support from the Republican grassroots.

Is it their campaign messaging that is at fault? Is it their inability to read the Republican base that is the question? Is it the whimsical thought that either Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush would be a great president, as hoped by some of their astute Floridian supporters that is crux of the matter or the problem. August polls have shown that name recognition may help, campaign donations and big name hosted campaign fund raiser may contribute to a candidate’s advertisements prowess; however, nothing is as promising as campaign messaging, the way Donald Trump has dominated the national media with his candidacy that points to the mantra: the best candidate running! For the rank and file Republicans in the month of August and in various early polls for the past few months, the Real Estate Mongol Donald Trump is the best candidate running. 

Not only has Donald Trump polled in to thirty percentage range among the GOP base, no other candidate, except Neuro-surgeon Ben Carson, has come any closer to Donald Trump. As of Wednesday August 27th, the national survey conducted by Quinnipiac University puts Donald Trump at the top, with twenty-eight percentage range of likely GOP voters, Ben Carson at twelve percentage, Seven percentage a piece for Governor Jeb Bush, US Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. No other Republican aspirant in the pack tops six percent and there are still eleven percent, undecided voters.  Yes, you may say early national campaign polls can be likened to Weather Forecasts, it may or may not predict the likely candidate or flag bearer come November, 2016.  You may also want to take consolation in the fact that the Quinnipiac University Polls also reports that twenty-six percent of likely voters say they would not support Donald Trump, or no-way would they help advance his candidacy; however, early campaign polls have helped obscure aspirants to seize the initiative to refocus, redirect or diversify their campaign messaging to gain greater traction with likely primary voters in the Party caucuses. An aspirant’s goal is to ensure that he is positioned in the party’s campaign and voter’s psyche to receive the greatest number of support from the greatest number of voters who are enthusiastic and truly supportive of their candidacy, to see them throw as the ultimate party’s flag bearer.

When National Newspapers and online news sources are reporting that Donald Trump’s perceived offensive language about Mexican immigrants is not deterring his candidacy; rather, it is actually alluring his candidacy to the rank and file in the Republican party, one has no other option, than to recognize the fact that as extreme as some of Donald Trump’s comment are, there are some Republican voters who identify with this type of messaging or rhetoric and are willing to support his candidacy. When Donald Trump’s supporters are reported as saying, I’m so glad he is running; I’m so glad he is highlighting issues of concern that Republican Party leaders are afraid to talk about, then one has to be mindful of the interest of this group, no matter how out of place they are in mainstream national politics.

This is the latest instance, in which a perceived obscure candidate in Party nomination process, skyrocketed to the fore-front and took over the establishment’s candidate’s position. An African-American with probably the clumsiest name to pronounce in the 2008 early nomination process, with about three year’s Senatorial experience, catapulted ahead of the establishment candidate to become the Democratic Party flag bearer. The aspirant not only won the 2008 Democratic Party primary, he did same in 2012 and remains the President of the United States today, to the chagrin of many rightist and extreme groups in the Republican Party. As one of the long-term political strategist contemplate, voting matters, early voting matters, even with some of its improbabilities, they are never to be underestimated, no matter who is involved.

Mr. Donald Trump’s candidacy rise began in May and it has sustained the months of June, July and August. He has presented himself as an advocate of anti-immigration stance, among other takings. Many rank and file in the GOP side or recognize his message(s) and are willing to stand up for them. In a feud with Univision anchorman Jorge Ramos, a renowned journalists with the Latin-speaking audience, some call him a political journalist, others, an activist with an immigration and other pressing issues of concern or interest to Mexicans and other Latin America communities, depending on which fence you’re sitting, was bluntly told to get out of his country by one of Mr. Trump’s supporters, after Mr. Ramos, was ejected from a recent Dubuque, Iowa conference given by the candidate. This was subsequent to Mr. Trump’s humiliating comments of: “sit down”; “go back to Univision!” One may debate the issue of order and protocols in questioning an aspirant or candidate in organized news conferences; however, one will not deny the fact that Mr. Jorge was asking about aspirant’s Donald Trump’s immigration proposals.

Other presidential aspirants may not want to talk about this guy as exasperatingly intoned by Governor Jeb Bush at another news conference, or distracted by the flamboyant Republican front-runner as characterized by the Democratic Party front runner, or belittled by Senator Lindsey Graham’s depiction of beating his brains out in South Carolina primary; however, Mr. Trump to date has a huge fellowship among the GOP base, and this growing group probably shares his conviction regarding anti-immigration. Yes, Senator Graham may perceive Mr. Trump as catering or pivoting to the “dark side” of the GOP base, or disenchanted by the policy of demagoguery as offered by former NBC-TV reality show presenter, however, there are thousands or millions in the Republican Party who secretly nurse the ambition to talk as they please, the way aspirant Donald Trump is now accustomed in his campaign. We all know that Demagoguery politics is never going to go away and this is actually not the first politician running for national office to default to politics of demagoguery, however to attack his candidacy as shallow, or render his candidacy as those of other Republicans without the pizazz of the heir, may be an underestimation. One may even take the position of the award winning Univision journalist, Jorge Ramos, who characterize Donald Trump’s campaign as spreading hate and getting personal, including comments as immigrants from Mexico are criminals and rapists, anchor babies or illegals,  the uncomfortable truth about this is that there is a market for this type of demagoguery in the Republican Party.

Henceforth, will Senator Graham’s characterized dark side of the Republican Party continue to win? Will aspirant Donald Trump’s rhetoric exacerbate bigotry or continue to attract Republicans who possess it? Will Donald Trump’s type of demagoguery triumph in 2016Republican Party Politics? No one knows; however, one thing is for sure, if other Republican aspirants do not tidy up their campaign message(s), if they do not engage in transformation campaign messaging and continue to allow Mr. Trump to accelerate his brand of messaging and continue to gain more grounds, there is no mistaken, Mr. Donald Trump will end up becoming the Republican Party Flag bearer, even if with a very slim margin. You may not like Mr. Trump’s call for the repeal of the fourteenth amendment to the constitution or detest his backing by White Supremacist groups; you may even abhor the fact that your party is increasingly being defined as a racist party; and, can hardly stomach the “dark side” side of your party. The truth is often hard to swallow; however, if you are interested in moving fast, in changing the discussion and in bringing more people to your fold of influence, you must provide an alternative for Donald Trump’s supporters to launch unto without losing your principles and ethos of seeking the highest office in the land.
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