Keywords or Terms: Deep South; Etch-A-Sketch; Evangelical Christians;
Republican Alabama; Mississippi; Louisiana, Maryland; District of Columbia;
Mormonism; and, Options before the
Convention
Now, Republican Rick Santorum
needn’t have to incentive voters in Louisiana
that much; his message of social conservativeness, already resonates with many
in the Bible belt. The Deep South love
pro-life message and many of these residents, find it just too difficult to
accommodate any man with a Mormon religious background. Religion has a special
place in the life of southern residents; and any doubt about that was probably
laid to rest with victories and voting culture in Alabama,
Mississippi and Louisiana. Were Mitt Romney igniting the
message of job creation in Louisiana,
Republican voters residing in a state with unemployment two digits below the
national average, weren’t going to be listening or buying. Their minds were
made up knowing what kind of campaign Mitt Romney was leading and how they
value Rick Santorum’s message. Their diversion from Mitt Romney’s campaign
message was probably pre-confirmed in Alabama
and Mississippi.
Now, where does Mitt Romney’s
campaign go from here in the Republican nomination process? The latest results
from Louisiana
leads or exposés a compelling message that, Republican voters in the South are
no fans of Mitt Romney as a Republican flag bearer. The Republican front-runner
must understand and appreciate that it is going to take more than overzealous
PAC support advert and an inconsistent message to win this group over. Unless
he understands that, his campaign is probably moribund in the rest of the
southern states. Conservative South hardly subscribes to an Etch-A-Sketch
message; these are people who do business with trust and a hand shake for
years; who believe a man’s word is as good as gold and live by that precept;
these are people ready to go to bat for you, once they believe and trust you.
To attempt to win over this group is going to take more than money, for in
their own world, money has very little to do with this equation, in a campaign seeking their support and votes.
Extolling values conservative
evangelical Christian are committed to is an intrinsic motivation for their
support. Rick Santorum knows this as he was cress-crossing that state in the
final days before voting in Louisiana.
Values of honesty and dependability are deep rooted in the life style of the
Southern voters. Etch-A-Sketch Campaign strategy is not a conservative element
that Louisianan Republicans are willing to live with. But what other factors
causes trepidation and fear among this Republicans: Romney’s willingness to
easily abandon his position on many social issues. Interestingly, voters in Maryland and District of Columbia,
the next phase of the fight for the Republican nomination may shy away from the
deeply conservative evangelical religious values that have played very well in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. Does this
mean Mitt Romney is safe in Maryland and District of Columbia; or
that Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich do not stand a chance in the next phase of
the fight? Not necessarily; the campaigns drive to harvest support in the new
phase of the fight, may depend on how Rick Santorum and or Newt Gingrich cast
the Mitt Romney’s campaign. If these other aspirants are able to continue to
hit hard at Mitt Romney as an inconsistent, undependable and unreliable flag
bearer, he can end up loosing District of Columbia and or Maryland.
There are two different
campaign strategy questions whose answers may enable Mitt Romney move his
campaign forward: How can Mitt Romney undermine the stronger support for Rick Santorum in
the past month? What if Conservative Republican voters choose to remain with Rick
Santorum?
How Can Mitt Romney Undermine the
Stronger Support for Rick Santorum in the past Month?
Rick Santorum has had great
success in the month of March winning votes and support in Seven States in the Union. Reeling in his successes, Rick Santorum has been
emboldened to soldier on until the August Republican Convention in Tampa Florida.
He has generated a lot of support for social conservative values that has been
absent in Mitt Romney’s campaign, either by design or omission. There are
political pundits and strategists who associate Mitt Romney’s design or
omission of social conservative message in his campaign as a strategy to help
him with independent voters in the fall elections. Newt Gingrich has not been
very far in delegate counts either; while not winning as many States as Rick
Santorum; he has been acquiring delegates, no matter how minuscule, that will
obviously deny Mitt Romney the golden number of delegates to win.
Today, Mitt Romney has to
contend with surging Republican opponent(s). While not necessarily aggressive
enough, measuring by the delegate counts in already contested states, the results of the delegate spread will remain damning, which ever way Mitt Romney looks at it.
Now, it is unfeasible seeing either the next two Republican aspirants
acquiring the needed 1144 delegate counts before the Tampa, Florida
Republican Convention. Further, if these two Republican Romney's opponents are vowing
they are not going to drop out of the race; definitely, Mitt Romney has to find
a way to wiggle away or break out of the bound that is preventing him from
reaching the golden number of delegate in time. Unless he is able to find the
solution(s) to undermine the surging performance of Rick Santorum and probably
Newt Gingrich; it is very inevitable that a brokered or negotiated convention
is in play, as long as the other aspirants refuse to drop out of the race.
To avoid a possible brokered or
negotiated convention, Mitt Romney may want to make a Vice-Presidential offer
to Rick Santorum and a cabinet position to Newt Gingrich. Now, this is assuming
that these men are willing to subscribe to this offer. What this strategy
offers Mitt Romney’s campaign are two folds: 1) Opportunity to harvest support
from the South by dealing with his regional deficiency from that region of the
country; since Rick Santorum is heavily favored in that part of the union; 2)
Opportunity to muscle Newt Gingrich who has been excessively vocal in his
campaign against Mitt Romney liberal Republican values. With this offer, Mitt
Romney may be able to energize those members of the Tea Party who are strongly
against his candidacy; and, who probably have sworn not to support his cause.
For this latter group, a brokered or negotiated convention is probably what
they will like. Their contention that a better conservative candidate but Mitt
Romney is much superior for the Republican Party is probably indelible. To
create passion and motivate this latter group to think otherwise or think in
the interest of a much peaceful Republican Convention is one of the reasons for
the current advanced proposal. Unless this burden of being a labeled
North-Eastern Republican liberal, flip-flopper and Etch-A-Sketch presidential
nominee is withered out before the general elections, it will be close to
impossible for Mitt Romney’s campaign to do well.
How Can Mitt Romney Undermine the
Growing Support for Rick Santorum in the month of March?
A tenet of political Insurgence
campaign is: Voters are either motivated or not by the campaign message of an
insurgent. An important distinction is found in how the prominent or far along
aspirants’ message fails to mirror the insurgent. Voters are not necessarily
looking for an ideal candidate; rather, they are looking for a prominent
candidate that mirrors more of what they like, their values, their convictions,
their reservations and more in a candidate they can carrel around for the
general elections.
Voters are motivated to support a party's flag bearer, if he or she is found to be a team player, a candidate willing
to accept that he or she has some deficiencies and is willing to change or
accommodate others or change that will lead to the overall Party’s success.
Part of the process of accommodating others or change is, bringing into the
fold, his opponents or archetypes. This is often a hard pill to swallow for
many front runners; and, in a political campaign that looks so embroiled with mudslinging
and name calling, being found to be accommodating of others or a team player
may actually be an advantage as it often goes along in benefiting the overall
party’s campaign and success. Thus, the front-runner needs to swallow his pride
and accept that there are qualities in other candidates, which he does not
have.
In any given year of general
election, aspirants experience various types of affronts and antagonisms that
may ground their campaigns before it takes off. Some form of inconsequential
factors, or past behaviors, have been known to sink a political campaign and politician ambition. If in doubt, ask Howard Cain and numerous other candidates that have
fallen on their sword because of their past behavior. Relentless antagonisms
and or long-drawn out party nomination process are known to have harmed the
chances of the flag bearer at long last. Now, there is no one advancing that
the nomination process does not have to be competitive; as a matter of fact, a
more competitive nomination process prepares better the ultimate party flag bearer in the general elections. However, when the nomination process becomes too
long drawn out till all the possible qualities that the front runner has are
turned to handicaps and the process is embroiled in a decapitation, then the
essence of a long drown out competition is lost and the overall party’s chances
are derailed or snuffed out.
Apart from other strategies
allude to in the earlier part of the blog, Mitt Romney may explore outside or external
rewards that will allow close aspirants to consider his lead as insurmountable. Excessive competition may trigger fear or compel other
aspirants to enter into the kamikaze mode of mind as other aspirants feel a
sense of despair from not being able to catch up with the front-runner. One or
both of them may enter into a frame of mind of my way or the high way. They may
work to completely destroy any chance that Mitt Romney may have in the general
elections by damaging him to the point of no return. This is often fractal for
the party.
The question for the party as a
whole is simply this: At what cost? At what cost will the rivalry and
competition among the aspirants damage the goal of the Republican Party: to get
Democrats out of office. When a front runner focuses so much on his or her
ambition at the expense of party’s unity in the general elections, the
opportunity of loosing in the general elections, increases, and party’s image
is damaged. The Republican front runner may want to consider the options as the
campaign and fight among the aspirants continue to the month of June or as far
as the convention date. What might happen if a brokered convention is inevitable
is that Mitt Romney will end up loosing the general election, since he becomes
a weaker candidate coming out of a brokered convention. What if the brokered
convention is close to being personal and egregious, the flag bearer still
looses, since the contention he comes out off, shows more blatantly his
weaknesses and the disarray his party is in. The eye-sore from a brokered
convention often leaves a black-eye on the ensuing candidate; a misfortune that
time can hardly erase before the big competition.
The time has come for Mitt
Romney to get into a negotiation and probably deals with the close up
candidate(s) to the run for the required 1144 delegates. What might happen if
Romney allows the acrimony between himself and the runner ups to fester? Most
likely, the absence of a clear winner at the convention, a brutalized ego and
ungrounded readiness to contest against Democrats! What Mitt Romney or any
other candidate bearing the Republican flag has to bear after a brokered
convention, is the weight of uneasiness, a highly marginalized status, an
inability to caress together all likely supporters, even among Republicans who
may have held their nose as they go about voting for him, simply because he
becomes the default party’s nominee. A deal between Mitt Romney and other
aspirants before the convention has the likelihood of elevating the true
meaning of party cohesion and commitment of all likely voters in support of the
party’s ethos to achieve the required energy and vitality to improve
performance in a general election. For now, the choices are out there for front
runner Mitt Romney to consider!