Tuesday, March 15, 2016

EXIT OF MARCO RUBIO FROM 2016 WHITE HOUSE RACE: the reward of disloyalty or what?

Keywords or Terms: Establishment Republican Leaders; Marco Rubio; Jeb Bush; Donald Trump; Novice Politician; Flawed candidacy; First White House Floridian Republican Hispanic; Establishment Candidacy; Neophyte; Small fish Republican Aspirants; Mentor Vs. protégé; Social Media Fights; and Outside Challenger

By the time Macro Rubio was talking at Atlantic University in Palm Beach, Florida on Monday, March 14, 2016, he probably wasn’t expecting a bomb-shell landslide loss to one of the angriest and loathsome aspirant for the 2016 White House, Reality Show host, Donald Trump. His inability to adjust to the twist and turns of the ever changing and gravitating electorate was probably one of the reasons he lost in his home state to a New Yorker, tonight. Were his premises of what works best in Republican primaries or caucuses in 2016 White House race flawed? Was his estimation of genuine support from Floridian Republicans after the exit of Jeb Bush from the race subject to a second guess? In current race for the White House, it appears that Republican voters are turning against the Establishment Republican Class altogether and shifting their loyalty to an outsider; an outsider many hardly know or understand his politics. Is this an experiment; or was this long overdue, or was it something that would have taken place outside Donald Trump’s candidacy for party nomination? Florida Republicans would have to pose similar questions to themselves in November, should Donald Trump lose the White House oval office to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?

The candor or absence of self-evaluation by Senator Marco Rubio demands a comparative or introspective evaluation by political pundits, who earlier had predicted the demise of Donald Trump, based on his brand of campaign. America and probably Floridians Republicans had never been upset or disagreeable to Establishment Republican candidates as they are in current campaign cycle. First, it was Rick Perry; second, Lindsey Graham; third, Jeb Bush; and now, Marco Rubio, all top notch or seasoned establishment candidates, who were torpedo and brutally embarrassed in the race for Republican Party nomination. Republican leaders had never expected as many as these “establishment candidates” falling on the way side against a “novice politician” as Donald Trump.

In spite of his unconventional campaign strategy, including a narcissistic and somewhat racist caricature of American minorities, Donald Trump has surpassed the probably insurmountable competition, equally surprising Establishment Republicans and Independents on the way to Republican Party probable, nomination. Further, despite his offensive use of language in referring to several minority groups the party had sought to court, the front-runner had made greater inroads to the hearts of many likely Republican voters. Donald Trump had not only beaten the establishment candidates in their game at over seventeenth states, he had outclassed some of these seasoned politicians on their home turf with breath-taking humiliation. The truth appears to be that, there are shortcomings in the way 2016 Republican Establishment candidates had run their race for party nomination; and to a larger extent, all of them, including the most seasoned and long serving in state capitols, appear to have missed the tempo of the hearts of Republican voters in current presidential nomination process.

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Without similar dramatic departure or characteristic uptake, the winner of the Democratic Party’s primaries in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and probably Illinois, would be the establishment candidate, Hillary Clinton. Her probable insurmountable delegate lead as of Tuesday’s night primaries and caucuses' results are now even more difficult to close by the next rival; and the ill-fated presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders for Democratic Party nomination, is now perceptually and perpetually, moribund. Further, the possibility of turning the tides of the huge gulf of delegates and super delegates between Hillary and Bernie, are now acceptable as herculean, as further results emerge from other state’s primaries and the extent of loss to the first Democratic Party female nominee flag bearer, become so glaring and obvious, that it is probably, a nightmare for the competition. The only great thing about the Democratic race is that Bernie’s Sander’s performance against the likely nominee has not been such a blunder, as to tarnish the image and prospect of a White House’s future run, as is the case for at least one of the Establishment Republican candidates.

As Tuesday’s results show in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina, the lure of Donald Trump candidacy for the Republican Party nomination and by default the White House oval office, are real. If Establishment Republicans find his candidacy as obscene and not worth the mantle of their party, it is probably too late by now; only a negotiated conference can now deny Mr. Trump’s Republican Party nomination. Bar this, it is probably safe to assume that, despite the disaffection and dissatisfaction by majority of Establishment Republicans, the rank and file have spoken; and since we are a democratic society or country, it will be ill-advised to want to deny Trump’s campaign party nomination and by default, contest for the White House oval office. Any shroud against his candidacy or the front runner, would serve no one’s interest, no matter how Establishment Republican leadership placate his candidacy, or use unconventional campaign strategy to topple the mainstream or far right Republican candidature.

It is not only extremely disappointing for the support of the 44-year old rising star in the Republican party, there is ample reason to believe that his challenge and fallout from Jeb Bush, in campaigning for party nomination, may have undone his chances or beleaguered his future in Florida politics. This is probably why he ended his campaign for the White House tonight with the message to his supporters: "There's nothing more than you could have done!" No one could have faulted Marco Rubio’s; however, there were loyalist of Jeb Bush, who could not bring themselves to vote for his protégé, no matter what the party stalwarts may tell them. The blunder of challenging his mentor for party nomination could have been the slapstick that came to roust at state’s primary. Over the past eight months, Marco Rubio’s choice to challenge Jeb Bush appeared to have undercut his credibility among supporters of Jeb Bush’s candidacy; and, the initially acceptable or engineered political objective of bringing the Hispanics to Republican Party’s fold, while very noble as conceived by the protagonists, the fact that one promising Hispanic candidate or leader, showed early or quick ambition, by attempting to erode the leadership and recognition of Jeb Bush in Floridian Republican Party, may have accounted for the humiliating loss of Marco Rubio in his home state, in what is now considered, an ambition killer, if not political apocalypse for the political career of the first White House Floridian Republican Hispanic.

The attempt to undermine a known mentor in state party politics at the national level, while not only the reason for Marco Rubio’s loss this evening, no one would or must discountenance this within the Floridian Republican Party. The difficulty of accepting that young Hispanic Marco Rubio, a protégé of an authentic establishment Floridian Republican leader, Jeb Bush, with a prospect of becoming a national party leader, may have offended some Republican loyalists and voters, who are true and loyal to the Jeb Bush brand. Suspicion of Marco Rubio’s quick ascendancy in the National Republican Party stratosphere and more growing recognition outside Floridian Republican Party, may have done his 2016 White house race, and arouse home-state voters' disaffection and displeasure, more than the campaign strategy of aspirant, Donald Trump. Florida Establishment Republicans, who understand the power wielded by Jeb Bush within the Floridian Republican Party, may consider Marco Rubio’s 2016 White House ambition more of a disaffection or disloyalty of a protégé to probably, a renowned Republican leader, Jeb Bush of the State of Florida. The fear of disloyalty or worst yet – setting bad example by undermining the hand that fed you – may have discouraged further support for Marco Rubio’s campaign for the White House, once Jeb Bush fell by the wayside. The true and authentic question, which many Establishment Floridian Republicans are asking in private is this: “If Jeb could not do it, how could Marco Rubio, a disaffected protégé of his, with light weight support from all sphere of interest groups within the party at national level?”

There are some in the press who would like to believe that Marco Rubio’s strength at the national level are bereft of his influence or clout in Florida Republican Party. Others have indicated that, like Marco Rubio’s campaign team strategized, the aspirant’s strength at the national level lies in his ability to maintain a tight-knit shift of close advisers, who are able to keep mum about the best options of their candidate and streamlining those options to a national audience of Republican Party supporters who are yearning for new breed of Republican leadership. These groups of supporters are said to be ready for the next generation party leaders to replace the long standing and probably, discredited establishment Republicans who are betrothed to American Corporate welfare interests and whom many Tea party memberships are disaffected with in current cycle of nomination. The important question for Marco Rubio now is not whether he had lost the nomination; rather, how far has he fallen within the Republican Party with this loss, is it to an irredeemable level that will impact his future chances of running for the White House? As a young and promising Republican leader, will this loss be a career killer for his ambition; or is it probably, a minor setback that can easily be overcome? The perceived disloyalty of Marco Rubio to Jeb Bush may trounce any love for future national ambition by Republican voters, or guarantee a second coming, with better name recognition at the National Republican Party level; however, this could be an overestimation of the gravity of the loss?

Marco Rubio’s campaign for 2016 White House was probably flawed from the beginning because of the perceptual disloyalty to his mentor; and this may have been the cog in the wheel of his early rise within the party’s national hemisphere. By attempting to force a run for the White House in 2016 election cycle, where and when his mentor had indicated obvious interest, may have provided the ammunition for some Jeb Bush’s loyalist and followers to skin Marco’s ambition or deny him essential support that could have helped him overcome the wave of challenge from Donald Trump. Hopefully, there is a forgiveness in the hearts of Floridian Republican establishment and Marco will rise from the ashes again?

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Further, there are others who maintain that the premises above have really nothing to do with the failure of Marco Rubio to win the Republican nomination; that in all the contests so far, Marco Rubio had only managed a single state victory in Minnesota; and, his choice to go on the offensive, one-on-one against Donald Trump after February 25th debate, probably sealed his fate. To this group, the conjecture of Marco’s social media fights with Trump and “small hands” elephant in the room caricature, was the true reason for his landslide loss in his home state. While there are some validities to this perception, there are people like me that will like to believe, it is more than that; and, the failure of Marco Rubio at the polls, especially in his home state at a rather critical junction, is more telling of how some Floridian Republicans perceived his announcement to run against his mentor. The flow of support from Jeb Bush’s loyalist are not easily transferable to a neophyte or small fish in the Florida Republican Party pond. Old habits die hard; and heavy hearted Floridian Republicans who saw their favorite candidate, Jeb Bush, fall on the way side, may not be easily expected to metamorphosed to his protégé’s supporters; ironically ensuring the success of someone considered as a promising star of the future. As often said in politics, you have to wait your turn!

In addition, it appeared that Marco Rubio caught all the flacks of the Floridian Establishment Republican Elite. His candidacy splinted loyalty even among non-establishment Floridian Republicans. He lacked solid support from the rank and file, pro-abortion groups and gay right groups; neither was he held to any esteem by other pressure groups within the party that could have made a difference to his candidacy, the centrists, defense hawks or evangelical Christians. Even after Jeb Bush got out of the race, ironically ensuring further or additional support from National Establishment Republicans, the uncertainties or perceived disloyalty of Marco’s run in some quarters, was hard to swallow; and the formula that could have tied together the Florida Republican support for one candidate, was lost or at best, flaky. Thus, the failure of some Floridian Republican to bring themselves to vote for Marco Rubio, and urge to punish the protégé for his unceremonious nose thumbing of his mentor, the outcome of tonight's Florida Republican primary results. Jeb Bush, the unofficial Hispanic Republican aspirant of the state, prior to the entry of his protégé to the race, had been ridden of the allure and support that went to Marco Rubio, once he declared his candidacy. Thus, it wasn’t only the social media fight with the alleged front-runner that probably did him in; it was more of a retribution for failure to fall in line, or unwelcome premature political ambition of a Floridian Republican up-starter.

Rubio's expectation of unflinching support from Floridian Republicans for his national office run was probably shortsighted. The outrage to Marco’s premature ambition in some establishment Floridian Republican quarters may have subverted complete loyalty to his curse after the fall of Jeb Bush; neither was his call for unity among Floridian Republicans answered at the polls. Further, the attempt and exercise of choice to run in the 2016 White House race and subsequent failure at the polls, probably told more about the vulnerability of an underweight politician, who considered knocking heads with his mentor his prerogative. The issue of loyalty became central to the campaign for party nomination, at least in the Florida Republican Party immediately Marco Rubio announced his ambition. By the time Jeb Bush had fallen or opted out, the seed of discord and discontentment had already been sown among some rather loyal Establishment Republicans in Florida. Jeb Bush’s somewhat lukewarm romance with Marco Rubio’s campaign after his exit, was in essence, a nemesis to his protégé’s ambition. Neither could Marco leverage support from Jeb Bush’s cronies; or was able to gain real support of unyielding commitment from preponderance Establishment Republicans and power-brokers, that could have made a difference in national politics. Marco today is neither a Republican Party nominee for 2016, nor a Floridian Senator. The victory of John Kasich in Ohio despite a tough fight from Donald Trump, essentially bore out the fallacy of premature ambition and the essence of statewide preponderance support and loyalty for a politician, hardly facing an intra-party insurrection. Had Kasich suffered a similar atmosphere as Marco Rubio tonight, he would equally have lost with a landslide to the outside challenger, Donald Trump.
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