Keywords or Terms: Mitt
Romney (First); Rick Santorum (Second); Ron Paul (Third); Newt Gingrich (Forth),
Rick Perry (Fifth); Michelle Bachmann (Sixth); Huntsman (Seventh); Social
Issue; Born-Again Evangelical Christians; Mormonism; Iowa; New Hampshire; South
Carolina; Florida
For more than four years, Mitt Romney campaigned for the
office of the Presidency, yet he came just slightly ahead of Rick Santorum as
one of the Republicans seeking that highest office in the land. The
conversation today could have focused on the performance of a unique candidate in
the Iowa Republican primary and a documentation of hard data, but the time is not
yet ripe to talk about that. What is upper most at this time,
is to reiterate some questions again: Is Santorum the counter weight to Romney? Will
Rick Santorum draw Romney into a Social debate on Abortion and other respective
issues that Santorum has made part of the basis of his candidacy? Is Santorum
the answer from the Born-Again Evangelical Christians to Mormon Mitt Romney? The
answers to these questions may be provided in the coming months; but what we
know from Iowa Caucuses is that the Republican flag bearer is hardly settled at this time.
It seemed it was a virtual tie for a long time between Rick
Santorum and Mitt Romney on primary results across Iowa;
however, late data has shown that a rematch in New Hampshire Primary may help Republicans
get their bearing better than Iowa.
And if not, maybe the primary results from South Carolina or Florida primaries will shed more light on which of the
Republican aspirants will get to carry the Republican flag. With 99% Iowa precincts reporting,
here is the break down of the result:
Rick Santorum (30, 007 – 25%); Mitt Romney (30,015 – 25%); Ron Paul (26,219
– 21%); Newt Gingrich (16,251 – 13%); Rick Perry (12.592 -10%); Michelle
Bachmann (6070 – 5%); and Huntsman ( 744 – 1%). Although Santorum may be at a disadvantage in going on because of the size of his campaign war chest, it is likely this result is a positive sign for Republicans who seek an alternative to Mitt Romney. What may the result mean for others who could hardly care about Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum?
The first message from the Iowa caucuses is that mainstream Republicans in the heartland of America are
still looking for that ideal candidate that will replace Mitt Romney. Second,
the Born-Again Evangelical Christians find it difficult to vote for Mormon Mitt
Romney. Is religion a very important variable in American Politics; or, has the
nation actually buried that bias with JFK? Are Social issues more or less relevant in
modern day Republican nomination process? Is there really a paucity of Reaganomics Republicans
who can take the mantle to fight for the so touted Republican ideals? The
complex problem surrounding the economy is number one for many Americans;
however, does a campaign strictly based on the question of job creation or social issues translate into votes against President Obama? Can Rick Santorum put together grassroots
support in South Carolina and Florida to flush down
Mitt Romney? Will another candidate from the old conservative wing of the Republican Party rise to throw a huge wrench into the puzzle?
We have seen in the past when an obscure candidate in States' primaries, jump in front out of nowhere, challenging the status-quo or probably the front-runner
candidate, the process of nomination becomes more fascinating and the public may enter into a state of despair over who is likely to be the flag bearer. Iowa’s Republicans answered some rather muddy questions
and some of them are: 1) Rick Perry or Michelle Bachmann are not ready for
prime time Presidential campaign and nomination process; 2) Mud slinging campaign
tactics can bring out a tough meanness in a presidential aspirant – ask Newt
what he thinks about Mitt after the Iowa caucuses?; 3) Ron Paul is a little bit
too extreme for many Republicans, if not the whole of America; 5) Rick
Santorum re-asserts the conviction that retail politics, face-to-face campaigns,
down to the door steps of the voters do produce essential results – though time
and labor intensive, retail politics is the real deal! Come tomorrow, we may get some candidates dropping out of the nomination process, while others will choose to move ahead. Today's result emphatically shows that the process of nomination for the highest office as construed by Iowans, works
Within the next few months, blood-letting among the Republican
aspirants will offer the Democrats the opportunity to see how voters perceive
either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum as viable candidate for the highest office in the land?
Republicans are being told that the old rules hardly apply anymore. Where the winning candidates
are not exactly what the hard core Godfathers of the party are looking for, change or hiccups may develop in the nomination process; and, this may spell other challenges for the party and insiders regarding who becomes the party's flag bearer in a general
election? Six months from now, the myth may explode, but until then, we are all
left with the realities of what the Iowa
primary has or are forcing the Godfathers in the Republican Party to deal with? The results from the Iowa caucuses may be cuddled by some very hard core
supporters of Mitt Romney; however, there is a huge faction of Republicans who
don’t want Mitt Romney to be the nominee and who will insist that an alternative candidate steps in to deal with what seem to be an impending nightmare. By October 2012, the difficult experience of ascertaining what Iowa's true result actually means will have been settled and the battle for the oval office begin. Hopefully, Republicans will have their somewhat consensus party flag bearer, by then.
Democrats need to understand that the Iowa caucuses results are actually good news.
Here are Republicans quite unsure if they actually want their front runner or
not; or, whether they would rather wait for results from other State’s
primaries or caucuses to stand firm on their party’s flag bearer. If Republicans
want to generate good favor, they may as well go along with whoever of the candidates
that seem to be garnering the necessary fellowship to be the flag bearer; or as
some put it: “the likely Republican candidate that can unseat President Obama.”
Intra-party acrimony will do the Republicans no good after the bad blood
between Mitt and Newt from the way the former ran his campaign in Iowa; or, how the Mitt Romney’s
or Ron Paul’s PAC ran the mudslinging bonanza that probably skewed the result
towards specific candidates.
Democrats must set up a triage to determine who is going to
be the Republican flag bearer. Democrats must take from the lesson of Candidate
Obama’s 2008 nomination as the flag bearer for their party. If Democrats want to
infer from the Republican’s Iowa’s caucuses result, the choice of the party’s Godfathers may not end up being the flag bearer for the Party in the general
election. Further, the front runner in any primary is beatable by other
aspirants; and, the fact that a presumptive candidate may loose or given the run for his or her money, is not only plausible, it must be expected. To develop a strategy that will address the not so
perfect state caucus results from Iowa, where the first or winning candidate
only led the second candidate by 8 votes, will be challenging but will be
interesting for all political gurus. Everyday henceforth, Democrats must now believe that they have a better chance than yesterday, as the winning and plausible Republican nominees are known to have said things like, Corporations are also people and Obama always sided with America's enemies? Haba, A treasonable President, Mr. Santorum?
Obama’s campaign team do not need to develop a campaign strategy
that counters Mitt Romney argument for his candidacy for the office; rather, a broad
based campaign strategy that anticipates another candidate like Rick Santorum or
any other Republican. The answer to the question who is President Obama likely to
face from the Republican Party maybe challenging for now; however, in another
three months we will get a clearer view of what is coming before us. State
primaries or caucus may not provide quick answer to the question of who is
likely to be the opposition candidate. Voters at primaries or caucuses tend to
junk or embrace a candidate depending on what ensues from debates and subsequent state’s primary results. No candidate must rest on
his oars, as the battle for Party’s nomination hardly emerges, until the fat
lady sings; in other words, as Yogi said: It is not over until it is over!
Goodnight.
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