Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Saints and Sinners: A Reflection on potential Republican candidates for the 2012 Presidential Election?

Keywords or Terms: Mike Huckabee; Donald Trump; 2012 Elections; Health Care Reform Law;and GOP Nomination

The title of today’s blog draws attention to what would be considered insignificant discussion in certain quarters; however, the first implication to be drawn from recent announcements by Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump, both initially speculated potential Republican candidates for nomination for 2012 general presidential election, is that both saints and sinners aspire for that enviable office. While the 44th Governor of the State of Arkansas musters other obligations than contesting against the 44th President of the United States of America in the coming 2012 election, the Real Estate Property Licensing guru probably shied away from the contest, out of the fear of scrutiny.

Like the good book said: it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God. Very few rich men would stand up to Internal Revenue Services’ scrutiny; it is therefore no surprise that Donald Trump chose to remain with NBC make-believe drama than serve his country. This is a man who once promised that he will release his tax filing papers once the 44th President of the United States releases his full length or long form birth certificate. Honesty and reliability are qualities expected of anyone occupying the office of the Presidency. Does this new development indicate hypocrisy on the part of Donald Trump? Well, here are two points to answer your question: 1) Trump probably would never submit to the detailed financial filings required of presidential candidates; 2) A man with lengthy records of bankruptcies, litigation and divorces probably hardly measures up to the quality needed in a man or woman seeking to occupy that office.

The reverend brother turned FOX News Host/commentator would probably not want to be found in the company of a wheeler and dealer; maybe that is why he specifically announced that the time is hardly ripe. For the hard to place billionaire, maybe it is the pressure of finding out that his followers left him as quick as a thunder once they found he is not a man of his words; or, he is hardly worthy of consideration, knowing fully well that he had other committed obligations to fantasy television. Based on the announcements made by Huckabee and Trump, it is expected that many, if not most, supporters of either man would move on to make the role of supporters of other candidates, robust. Instead of standing in the way of other candidates, Huckabee probably took the high road while Trump got an accurate understanding of what a disaster his candidacy would have been.

Here verbatim is the response from former governor of the State of Arkansas regarding his choice not to run: “The past few weeks, the external signs and signals and answers too many of the obstacles point strongly toward running. And when I'm with people encouraging neither run, it is easy to feel the strength of their partnership and commitment to help me to the finish line. But only when I was alone in quiet and reflective moments did I have not only clarity but an inexplicable inner peace, a peace that exceeds human understanding. All the factors say go. But my heart says no. And that's the decision that I have made.”(1) Unlike his swearing and epithet-laden speech in Las Vegas which probably turned off respectable voters, here are Donald Trump’s responses for not running: “I have spent the past several months unofficially campaigning and recognize that running for public office cannot be done half-heartedly… Ultimately, however, business is my greatest passion and I am not ready to leave the private sector.”(2) Subjecting both responses to contextual analysis, you probably know that while the first candidate’s response may be very significant for future attempt to run, the second candidate’s hardly stands any chance, simply put; his preference is not to serve his country but to make money. Damn right Mr. Trump; it is the division of labor thing! It is best to allow the politicians to do their thing, since you are not one of them; and, your initial campaign strategy on ‘Celebrity Apprentice’ was probably based on an ulterior motive!

If we are to take the words of one of the Republican leading strategists at face value, it is too late to run for those (candidates) who haven’t begun campaigning to mount an effective bid for GOP nomination. Karl Rove believes that the republican field is still wide open and anyone can still blow open the race. That means, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Gary Johnson, can still give Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels, run for their money. Frankly, it isn’t that the Republican Party is lacking in men and women who want to contest for that office; however, it appears that the drama and mirage of the office make recent developments among potential hopefuls newsworthy as they present a more accurate picture of the quality of Republicans who have the wherewithal to occupy that office. How about men and women with baggage? I’ll let you have your imagination run wild!

There are speculations that an unexpected event may lead the front-runner into seclusion as conservative Republicans begin to ask the question: who is more conservative enough for us? Mitt Romney seems a very probable candidate to win the GOP nomination, barring any questioning of his religious background. However, if the conservatives in the Republican Party, especially the Tea Party group, continue to flex their muscle, the former Governor of the State of Massachusetts might as well kiss the GOP nomination good-bye. Two main reasons: 1) tea party members want to repeal a synonymous health care bill to what was passed by Mitt Romney in the State of Massachusetts; 2) conservative religious right can hardly accommodate a Mormon. As much as the conservative Republicans may want to dispute the latter assertions, the reality on the ground bears them out.

The powerful conservative republican base would like to respond to what they see as an uncomfortable health care reform law passed in 2010. A few of them believe that Mitt Romney’s past affiliation with a similar law will tarnish or damage their cause. A probable choice candidate for the powerful conservative republicans will be a religious right candidate with attributes and qualities better known with the conservative, Anglo-Saxon, protestant religious and pro-business background. Just as the powerful conservative republicans often like to mask or contradict their position on the religious affiliation of their choice candidate, the truth is, their first preference would never be for a Mormon. The current pro-business background of Mitt Romney may work well for him among the republican power brokers; however among the rank and file, he is not just it!

The challenge for the conservative republican power brokers is how to sell the front runner to the rank and file. Concurrently, the challenge for the front runner is how to better communicate his choice of support for a pseudo-state sponsored health care system and how his religion will not interfere in his policy choices. Another candidate but the front runner may manifest himself or herself in the coming months. His message and handling must be pro-choice, pro-business, and Web-savvy or friendly; his or her demeanor must neither be too aggressive or extreme, but just satisfactory enough to better communicate the conservative values that the power brokers are used to say: hefty defense spending; more tax cuts; lip-service fiscal responsibility and pro-life. Embodying these qualities is going to be the huge challenge ahead for that candidate. All these qualities apply to Mitt Romney, but those power brokers are often too apprehensive of anyone who is not totally like them.

Finally, the two candidates opting out this last weekend are hardly obstructive to the chances of the front runner. It is contestable that Mike Huckabee would have been the candidate of choice for the power brokers. He may be a symbolic candidate of choice, but there are other qualities that the power brokers are looking for that was absent last time around; and frankly, maybe those qualities are not in Mitt Romney and that is why their so-called political strategist advances that the field of candidate for GOP nomination is still open. Thus, for republicans: of saints and sinners make thee the candidate of choice!

2) http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0511/55052.html#ixzz1MfIYWPrI

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