Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Republican Party’s Poll leadership after the fourth Party Primary Debate

Keywords or Terms: Ben Carson; Donald Trump; Jeb Bush; Marco Rubio; Republican party Flag Bearer; Minority Groups; Religion; Race; Immigration; International Terrorism; Florida Politics; Floridian Republicans; Ultra-conservative; Ultra-Nationalistic; American Party; and, American Independent Party

Contrary to establishment Republican Party expectations, and probably a generality of predictions by presidential campaign polls watchers, Mr. Donald Trump’s precipitous rise during the summer months and polls’ leadership during the fall months have not abruptly ended. Republicans, as well as presidential campaign polls watchers, are becoming accustomed to Mr. Trump’s campaign shenanigans and are living with an uncomfortable reality that it is very unlikely the real estate mogul is going to suffer a meltdown that may scuttle his chances of being the Republican Party flag bearer come next year. A few pollsters, who predicted Mr. Trump is unlikely to escape the wrought or criticisms of the disaffected minority groups he is known, or assumed to have offended with his campaign rhetoric, are rethinking their predictions. Neuro-surgeon Ben Carson’s lukewarm meteoric rise in polls in the past few weeks had a few Republican voters longing for a different polls’ leader; however, his controversial resume and a few of his rather unsubstantiated declarations about the Paris’ unfortunate disaster, and what the White House has at its domain information on national security and international terrorism, have waned his allure and many potential supporters are gyrating back to initial candidates or preferences.

In contrast to his fellow counterpart in the Democratic Party Presidential campaigns, the former NBC reality show host has not backed out of his initial positions on many controversial issues, including hot-button subjects as religion, race, immigration and international terrorism. Mr. Trump has attempted to muzzle his critics at campaign venues as he spills out what are considered arrogant and unwelcomed characterization of fellow Americans. And unlike Secretary Hillary Clinton, who has apparently been reluctant to offend minority groups at her campaigns and campaign venues, Donald Trump has refused to bow down or tone down his criticisms of minority groups in America. There is a strong sense of nationalism, one tinted if you might say, with some level of xenophobic characterization, racism, and dogmatisms that have now embodied Mr. Trump’s campaign message and close to daily ‘Tweets’ for the Republican Party nomination.

Donald Trump’s prominent probable alternatives for Republican Party voters, Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio, are bugged down by other criticisms or baggage that make them not really alternatives, but a second and third options or choices, cut out of the same cloth with Donald Trump. How about Jeb Bush’s choice to accept only Christian Syrian refugees into the US; or Marco Rubio’s ‘specialized test’  for possible Syrian refugee immigrants? After a split and confusion among Republican voters of who best fit to carry the Republican Party flag come 2016 general election, there is recent evidence that the latter two presidential aspirants, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, hardly differed in ideology or specifics on immigration policy and national security. Marco Rubio has survived so far as one of the chief beneficiaries of Jeb Bush’s conscionable restraints and brotherhood with a disaffected former President, George Walker Bush. Donald Trump has responded to his polls leadership by demerging other competitors with his theatrics on the campaign trail; and Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio seem to be waiting for the first or second shoe of Donald Trump, the current Republican Party polls leader, to drop.

Governor Jeb Bush has quickly attempted to refurbish his campaign messages after the second debate with promises of respect for the minority group Donald Trump castigates as rapists, offenders and illegal immigrants, not fit to be accepted into America for legal immigration. Jeb Bush is strongly, if not strangely, making himself look as the capable alternative to the government house executive novice, Donald Trump. Marco Rubio on the other hand continues to believe, if not so whimsically, that his youthfulness will trump the allure of Governor Jeb Bush or Donald Trump’s poor choice in campaign words. Whatever the case, the latter two men’s experience in the gator state, indicate that their campaigns are already decimated by broken loyalty and promises among their homegrown supporters in Florida. 

Did you say Florida again? After the inconclusive Presidential election voting in 2000 that led to two term of a President that went to war with a credit card? Is the Republican Party or America doomed to the politics in Florida? Can the similar campaign backgrounds, or splinted loyalty from Florida Republicans, interplay into national politics, if Donald Trump falters? These interesting questions are bewildering to pollsters watching closely the Republican Party primary. Perhaps the largely geriatric Florida voters, the old, retired and sun loving crooners, can convince Republican voters to look away, or grant either of their home grown politicians a chance at the national level. Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio may need to concentrate on convincing their home state supporters that each is the real deal, when it comes to alternative to the real estate mogul, Donald Trump.

Even by the bizarre standard of Florida voting patterns, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio’s ambition for the White House oval office is real salacious for board room discussions or country clubs’ barbeques in that suntanned retirement haven. The early pattern of splintered loyalty between these two Floridian Republicans has provided a framework on how not to trust so much your protégé, when it comes to vying for national offices. Governor Jeb Bush could probably write a book or two on this one at this time. For better or worse, Senator Marco Rubio’s accession to national politics competition, with the tutelage of former Governor Jeb Bush will convince majority of local and state politicians to watch out for those up and rising politicians in their neck of the woods. The presumptions of political patriarchs have been marred forever by the current Presidential Campaign in the Republican Party. Never again will you see a statewide stand out politician attempt to groom a novice for greater opportunities ahead. The reality of the new experience in national politics is probably a price to pay for being so presumptuous or underrating of a local or state politician in the race for a national office.

The close to offensive and probably racist comments on the campaign trail of Mr. Trump create an opportunity and a crack for a very viable candidate to take advantage of in the Republican primary. The question now is this: will anyone of the fourteen or so contenders be able to exploit this rosy opportunity? The early patterns of polls indicate that hardly any of the Republican aspirants has been able to come up with the magic to unravel the very much, establishment Republican Party nightmare, or unwanted. Governor Jeb Bush’s missteps or brotherhood with probably a failed Presidency and Senator Marco Rubio’s unlikely betrayal seems to have broken loyalty in Florida Republican voters’ base; and hence, probably majority of the voting blocs across the nation. As Florida Republican voters’ loyalty remain fragmented, so does hitherto unexpected consequential of probable disloyalty and overzealous ambition, playing into the failures of what was once considered a viable candidacy. 2016 Jeb Bush’s campaign for the White House, just like 2008 Hillary Clinton’s campaign for the White House, were the respective establishment’s early candidacy. In the presidential campaign territorial nasty turf fights and state primaries sorting out, the latter of the two failed to win the crown in 2008; unfortunately, or fortunately today, the earlier candidate’s campaign is weighed down by the insurgency or fierce ambition of a former protégé.

2016 Republican Party nomination process has fallen on an unexplainable infighting within the Republican Party, one that no one in the party, at least in Florida Politics, is willing to acknowledge. Governor Jeb Bush; Jeb, as is fondly referred to during his occupation of Tallahassee capitol, a first accomplishment for a Republican governor since reconstruction; and probably through his self-chosen initiative or plan to advance loyalty for the Republican Party brand in the gator state, appears to have come to bite him. The future of the Republican Party brand after this Republican Party primary is going to be a topsy-turvy. Change is going to come to Florida Republican Party due to the experience of having Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio on the campaign trail for the 2016 White House. Building a foundation for the advancement of loyalty for the Republican party brand in the State of Florida may have been a great idea when Jeb sort to groom Marco, but the Cuban water and Texas hurricane hardly mixes; thus creating new understanding among party members that grooming a protégé may not be working so well at this time for the 43rd and two-term Republican Governor of Florida.

Senator Marco Rubio is not going to wait or succeed Governor Jeb Bush by the current infighting in Florida Republican Party. Marco Rubio is not going to succumb to the overbearing auspices of the son and brother of former Presidents. The protégé, whom many Florida Republicans saw as a dutiful up and coming Republican elite, has broken away from the pack; and the currently precipitated infighting and imbroglios appear to be breaking into national politics. If Real Estate Donald Trump wins the Republican Party nomination, Governor Jeb Bush will probably have a hindsight assessment that questions: had Marco Rubio not got into the race; maybe my campaign efforts would have yielded better results? However, if Senator Rubio ends up being the nomination, there is going to be a Florida Republican Party fracas, never before seen in recent memory. On the flip-side, if Governor Jeb Bush ends up being the Republican Party nominee, which seems like a long shot at this time, there is going to be a ‘gotcha’ moment, one that writes: Never bite a finger that feeds you!

Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 run for the White House has created an upheaval and political destabilization; one hardly envisaged in local Florida Republican politics. A vision of a blossoming Republican Party brand since reconstruction appears to be fading or turning out to be an academic debate exercise nowadays in Florida. The extreme conservative Floridian Republicans are uncertain about how to respond to the two homeboys campaigning for the 2016 White House without looking or sounding partial to either of the two. The likely bemoaned, unwanted or unsubscribed candidacy of a Yankee Real Estate Developer, while so uncomfortable for now, appears only the best option to fall back on, in the face of the confusion that the probable infighting among Republican Floridian voters, appears to be defaulting into.

Aspirant Donald Trump is succeeding in his campaign efforts and fewer Republicans by day, are doubting his nomination as the party’s flag bearer. Mr. Trump is sitting on the keg of traditional conservative values of some extreme Republicans. His openly antagonist comments and ultra-nationalist obfuscations are sounding very palatable to many more Republicans than two months ago. His somewhat Hitler like propagandized presidential campaign efforts are receiving sympathies from a greater spread of the Republican Party members, especially the ultra-conservative of the Tea party group. The time to challenge Mr. Trump’s ultra-nationalistic brand of message is now. If mainstream Republicans fail to do so, if they fail to call out the contentious brand of Trump’s Republican Presidential campaign, not only will the party suffer in the general elections, it is probably feasible that the party will go down the way of American Party of the early 1840’s and the American Independent Party of the 1960’s.
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